“I knew it was going to do that. I literally saw it coming.”
Have you caught yourself thinking this?
Why does knowing the outcome make your earlier uncertainty feel like confidence?
What's happening psychologically?
Once price has moved, the outcome seems obvious because it is visible. The mind may reconstruct the earlier situation as if the result had been equally clear beforehand. A possibility you considered becomes something you believe you knew.
This creates frustration about missing the move. But anticipating one direction is not the same as identifying a valid trade with sufficient entry conditions.
Hindsight can make the past look more predictable than it actually was. The distinction is between recognising a scenario and having adequate evidence to act on it at the time.
Often preceded by
A missed trade, a strong move without participation, price reaching a watched level.
May involve
Hindsight bias, selective memory, regret, exaggerated confidence in previous predictions.
Can lead towards
Forced entries afterward, unnecessary self-criticism, distorted evaluation of missed opportunities.
Catch it
Notice when the language changes from “I thought it might happen” to “I knew it would happen” only after the move.
Interruption question
“Before the move happened, what evidence did I actually have, and was it sufficient for an entry?”
When this thought might be reasonable
You may genuinely have identified a valid missed setup. The value is in reviewing original evidence, not assuming the result was certain.